Unusual Patterns Seen in Demographic Data of Some Countries in Europe

Vesselin C. Noninski

New York Sofia Institute, 149 West 12th Street, New York, New York 10011

Unquestionable graphically represented raw data of governmentally reported number of deaths from all causes in several European countries are shown; indicating so far unrecognized behavior without anomalous increase, as opposed to another group of countries where pronounced anomalous maximums are readily seen. Such is the case despite the similarity (except for Sweden) in the instituting of the ages-known low-tech restrictive governmental methods for limiting the effects of a pandemic throughout. This new finding goes along with the observed anomalous increase of the 2020 all-cause-deaths numbers in only 12 states of the USA, absent in the remaining 41 states in the USA, which was reported in a previous study1. These newly found unequivocal facts concerning the discernible difference in the health status of different parts of the USA and Europe in 2020 require reconsideration of the views regarding the purported 2020 pandemic.

Observing of discernible anomalous patterns such as maximums, not seen in the usual run of time evolution curves of the raw absolute numbers for the deaths from all causes provided by the most reliable source of any country, its government, is the criterion unmatched in its scientific rigor to assess the health status of a country.

In a previous analysis1, a hitherto unrecognized phenomenon was reported, concerning the number of deaths from all causes in 2020 in some states of the USA. This phenomenon, found upon inspection of the official governmental data2,3, comprising anomalous increase and then decrease within several weeks of the all-cause-deaths, is observed in only about 12 of all the 50 states of the USA, for the latter part of the initial 20 weeks of 2020, compared to the all-cause-deaths toll for the same period in 2018 and 2019 showing no such bout. Moreover, the official data2,3 for the remaining 41 states show that no such phenomenon of all-cause-deaths number increase characterizes the same period in the same three years, 2018, 2019 and 2020. It was noted in ref.1 that this new finding deserves special attention because it has a direct bearing on the purported universal reality of the pandemic claimed in 2020.

A similar hitherto unrecognized phenomenon, consisting of governmental raw data revealing a pronounced anomalous outburst in 2020, occurring only in some countries, of the number of all-cause-deaths, as opposed to other countries which show no such anomalies, is seen also in Europe. As long as such governmentally reported raw data are available and are plotted, the reality of whether or not a curve with a maximum and a curve without a maximum differ, defies any doubt even on the face of it, without additional processing of the data and excluding any further speculation and modeling.

Firstly, the raw all-deaths-data, especially when it becomes permanent after the acquisition time lag, comprise standalone unchangeable final counted numbers, which are of infinite accuracy and precision that speak for themselves. Also, being governmentally generated makes these data of highest possible reliability.

Secondly, when these absolute numbers are presented in a graphical form, no matter how much argument there could be about borderline cases, discernment between a practically horizontal line and a line with an expressed maximum, is like the comparison of two unequal patterns which even an infant can tell apart. Thus, this study is an example of unquestionable deductive conclusion about an immediately observable real difference in absolute data, should such data be available. This study is part of the wider search of this author aimed at finding absolute, unequivocal criteria about the reality of claimed phenomena or inconsistencies. Such criteria prove to anyone the reality of the claimed phenomena or problems so obviously that peer-review becomes unnecessary as a way of establishing scientific validity of these claims, thus rendering these claims ultimately scientific. Start with recognizing the absolute fact that no peer-review is needed to know the claim that my hand has five fingers is real. The less the need for peer-review of a proof about the reality of a claim, the more scientific the claim is. The other two examples found by this author, of discovered unequivocal scientific facts of substantial significance, are discussed elsewhere.

Therefore, when the numbers for the all-cause-deaths are available, as they are in the USA1, the usual disagreements among health professionals as to the reality of a health crisis due to a microbial agent should subside, giving way to unequivocal conclusions. As mentioned, there can hardly be any more categorical and scientifically rigorous way to judge about the reality of a health crisis due to a microbiological threat than by observing the time variation of the absolute number of deaths from all causes. This is an objective criterion of such strength, which makes medicine approach the austerity of exact sciences. When such data are at one's disposal, anyone, even without special training, can conclude unequivocally as to whether or not a health crisis claim is real only by visual inspection of the graphs and observing peculiarities in them such as atypical maximums. Therefore, the main stumbling block for an unequivocal conclusion regarding the reality of a health crisis is nothing other than having such data at hand. Luckily, these data for the USA are readily available2,3 and the conclusions based on them, as tentative as they may seem today to some arguing that their character is still preliminary, resulting from the delay in acquisition, will undoubtedly eventually become unequivocal. For Europe, access to this sort of data is more complicated and even impossible.

Therefore, it should be appreciated that the gold standard of demonstrating at once, without further ado, that there was nothing unusual happening in the country, is the straightforward way the raw all-cause-deaths numbers are presented by the Bulgarian National Statistical Institute4—the graph of these raw data is immediately seen upon following the link4. There is no other agency in the world which not only has these data available for the public, but is presenting these numbers graphically so directly on the internet (cf. Fig.1).

Fig.1. Number of all-cause-deaths in Bulgaria plotted against the week number, corresponding to years 2015-2020.

From Fig.1 anyone can immediately see, even with the naked eye and without having any special training, that the 2020 all-cause-deaths curve, the curve with the markers, lies practically below the curves for 2015-2019. This is especially true during the 2020 mid-March to April, weeks 10-17, when lockdown of the country occurred. The visible slight outburst further in the 2020 curve during week 20 does not go much beyond what is seen in the previous years, especially beyond the 2015 curve.

Similar run of the 2020 curve, showing no peculiarities such as maximums, and even lying below the curves for the same period from previous, no country-lockdown, years, can be seen in the time curve of the absolute raw all-cause-deaths numbers for three other European countries, shown in Fig.2.

Fig.2 Absolute raw number of deaths from all causes in Germany5, Finland6 and Norway7 plotted against the week number for the corresponding year.

Unlike the possibility to immediately inspect the graphs by following the Bulgarian National Statistical Institute link4, there must be additional effort applied to plot the raw data and produce Fig.2, although the numbers are publicly available in the respective links. Plotting these data, as is done in Fig.2, shows that in 2018, which is prior to 2020, when there has been no lockdown, has shown more expressed peculiarities, which should have caused heightened alert. Even the slight exchange of position of the curves after the 15th week in the Germany and Finland plots may not signal that anything other than the usual quarantine measures is warranted, short of locking down of the country. None of the 2020 curves in Fig.2 exhibits anything extraordinary in their run. This study is specifically aimed at an unaided observation of the raw data provided, so that a common person could gain an impression of the situation by mere inspection of the plots. Of course, further statistical analysis may be applied for the significance of any purported unusualness in the run of the 2020 curves in Fig.2, but it is hardly expected that anything significant will be found through such additional efforts, especially in view of the clearly contrasting run of the similar curves for other countries shown below.

So far, even if a remark from a punctualist may be added that there is unavoidable delay in data registration, we may safely say that we saw from the unequivocal data for four countries that there has not been an unusual health threat in 2020 compared to previous years. This conclusion coincides with the conclusion reached in ref.1 regarding 41 states of the USA.

Unfortunately, obtaining of the absolute numbers comprising the deaths from all causes turned out not to be straightforward when it comes to the European countries other than the discussed ones. This author contacted a number of governmental statistical agencies in Europe but only a few of them replied and even fewer provided the data needed.

Therefore, in this study we will resort to an indirect way when it comes to judging the health status of countries other than the discussed ones. For this purpose presentations from a website of an organization named EUROMOMO8 are used providing processed all-cause-deaths data for some countries. From these presentations the phenomenon already observed in ref.1 of absence of anomaly in these numbers for some states, as opposed to the presence of unusual maximums in these numbers in other states, found for the USA states, can also be clearly seen in the curves concerning many countries of Europe, although this anomaly is unnoticed by the authors of ref.8. Because this study is only concerned with the drastic difference in the all-cause-deaths time patterns in 2020 in some countries compared to other countries, and the only available curves for other countries were those provided by EUROMOMO8, it was to be ascertained that the patterns seen in that ref.8 are real and indeed correspond to the only reliable time patterns seen in the plotted absolute raw all-cause-deaths numbers, such as the ones shown in Fig.1 and Fig.2. Thus, the available absolute raw numbers were plotted back-to-back with the graphs provided by ref.8. As is seen from Figs.3-5, an excellent correspondence is observed between the patterns in the graphs which this author was able to plot, using the available absolute all-cause-deaths numbers on the one hand, and the graphs presented in ref.8 on the other.

Fig.3. Juxtaposition of the graphs from ref.8; namely, A1 and A2 with the graph B of the raw all-cause-deaths data provided by ref.5. Graphs' A1 and A2 ordinates represents z-scores calculated by the authors of ref.8, while the ordinate of the B graph represents the absolute all-cause-deaths, provided by ref.5. The abscissas of A1 and A2 as well as the abscissa of B show the week number of the corresponding year.

Fig.4. Juxtaposition of the graph from ref.8 A with the graph B of the raw all-cause-deaths data provided by ref.6. Ordinates and abscissas are the same as in Fig.3.

Fig.5. Juxtaposition of the graphs from ref.8 A with the graph B of the raw all-cause-deaths data provided by ref.7. Ordinates and abscissas are the same as in Fig.3.

As is seen from Figs.3-5 there are no unusual events seen in 2020, compared to the same period of the previous years also in the curves presented by ref.8.

Concurrent with the above uneventful run of the 2020 all-cause-deaths vs. week number is also the run of the curves shown in Fig.6 assembled from ref.8. Figs.3-5 gave assurance that the run of the EUROMOMO curves8 reflects the real pattern seen when the absolute all-cause-deaths numbers are used at least in three countries. So we may now conjecture that all EUROMOMO patterns reflect the real state of the matters in the countries presented in Fig.6 when it comes to the lack of any anomalous health event in 2020. From Fig.6 one sees that not only are there no unusual events occurring in 2020, but in some cases, such as Austria, Denmark, Greece and Portugal, there were events in earlier years that should have caused more concern than the calm in 2020, purported as a pandemic, causing unjustified lockdown of these countries.

Fig.6. Run of the curve for the all-cause-deaths plotted against the week number for the corresponding year for 8 countries. Source - ref.8. We treat these patterns as being patterns reflective of the genuine all-cause-deaths patterns, due to the reassurance by Fig.3-5.

In Fig.7 one sees a juxtaposition of a graph plotted with available absolute all-cause-deaths raw data, with a graph for the same country taken from EUROMOMO website8. This time one sees, both in the processed and in the raw data, an appearance of a maximum in 2020, slightly greater in the raw data, and even more expressly greater in the less reliable data from ref.8, than maximums that have appeared in earlier years.

Fig.7. Close similarity of the patterns in the all-cause-deaths curve from ref.4, curve A, and the curve plotted from the available absolute raw data, curve B.

The close resemblance in Fig.7 of the patterns with 2020 anomaly, both in the raw data plot and in the processed data plot from ref.8, gives reassurance that the patterns in the following Fig.8 are real.

Fig.8. Curves with maximums, assembled from EUROMOMO website8.

Although not raw data, but data seen to conform with the patterns displayed by the raw data plots, Figs. 6 and 8 speak for themselves and can serve as a reliable basis for the conclusion that there are a number of countries in Europe, as was already observed for 41 states in the USA1, in which no unusual health events occurred in 2020 (Fig.6) in contrast to countries in Europe where a clear anomaly is seen in 2020 (Fig.8), as there are about 12 states in the USA with the same sort of anomaly1.

The absence of peculiarities such as maximums in the curve for the number of deaths from all causes in 2020 is the most reliable unequivocal scientific criterion that there has been no epidemic in a given country. Absence of anomalies, such as maximums, in the curves shown in Figs.1-6 indicates that any pathogenic agent, even if unknown, such unknown agents appearing periodically throughout the years, would be part of the usual mix of factors causing death. On the other hand, clearly expressed maximums, absent during the previous years, in the all-cause-deaths curves in 2020, proves unequivocally that there has been an out of the ordinary health threat in that country. Consequently, the fact that such maximums are not observed in many of the studied countries in Europe, as well as in about 75% of the states in the USA, speaks strongly in favor of the skepticism for the reality of a pandemic in 2020.

The above proves that the extraordinary measures taken in these countries with no anomalies (Figs.1-6) are unjustified. As in the case of the USA, in the case of Europe there must be further investigation and explanation as to why such discrepancy in the health behavior of countries should exist, especially provided the similarity (except for Sweden) in the instituting of the ages-known low-tech restrictive governmental methods for limiting the effects of a pandemic throughout.

Although EUROMOMO has marked with a yellow band only at the end of the graph the data corrected for delay in registration, nevertheless, questions may arise about the finality of all reported 2020 data at this point. Of course, in time, the raw data will be finally established. In not more than a year's time all questions regarding the preliminary character of these findings will vanish. However, even at this time, the drastic difference in the run of the studied curves being so pronounced that no acquisition time delay can be expected to smear, the general conclusion from this study remains and it should be kept in mind in all the analyses of the health events that may or may not have occurred in 2020. Analysis of this kind must also become standard for any future assessment of the health conditions of countries. Such obvious differences in the time pattern of deaths from all causes in different countries must always be given full attention. Ignoring these differences amounts to nothing less than a prescription for public health as well as societal crisis.


1. http://mercerandcrosbystreet.org/

2. Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Weekly Counts of Deaths by State and Select Causes, 2014-2018, https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/3yf8-kanr

3. Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Weekly Counts of Deaths by State and Select Causes, 2019-2020, https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6

4. National Statistical Institute, Deaths in Bulgaria by Weeks, https://www.nsi.bg/en/content/18162/basic-page/deaths-bulgaria-weeks

5. Statistisches Bundesamt, https://bit.ly/37sz9EY

6. Statistics Finland's PxWeb Databases, https://bit.ly/2UCsClW

7. Statistisk sentralbyrå, https://www.ssb.no/en/statbank/table/07995/

8. EUROMOMO, https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

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